Website under construction

Website under construction
ASPO Belgium

is an association of researchers and professionals interested in the study of Peak Oil and Gas and its implications for humanity. We are part of a worldwide network of organizations affiliated to the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO), which was founded by Colin Campbell and Kjell Aleklett.
The association was founded in 2007 by Patrick Brocorens, researcher at the University of Mons.

We are looking for people interested in Peak Oil and its consequences to work.

The first website was exclusively French. To mark the passage of the ASPO in NPO, we take the opportunity to modify the site and make it multilingual.
Feel free to contact us for help in the translation or simply to correct errors found in our articles (email to This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
)

Thank you in advance

The committee ASPO Belgium

Public inquiry of the Walloon Parliament about relationship between economy and peak oil, and the implications for Wallonia

Aim

This inquiry aims to assess the influence of peak oil on the economy, and vice versa, the role of economic factors on the level of oil production. The inquiry objectives are also to evaluate the implications of a global peak oil for Wallonia (see below).

How to contribute

Anyone wishing to contribute to the inquiry may submit a written contribution (up to 15 pages in Word format) to MP LEBRUN, President of the Peak Oil and Gas Committee of the Walloon Parliament. At the end of the inquiry, a summary report of the submitted contributions will be jointly prepared by the Peak Oil and Gas Committee of the Walloon Parliament and ASPO.be (Belgian section of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas). The authors of the submitted contributions will be consulted to give their opinion on the summary report, which will be released early 2014.

Deadline

            This inquiry will run from 5th of July 2013 to 15th of December 2013.

Contacts

            MP Michel LEBRUN, President of the Peak Oil and Gas Committee of the Walloon Parliament.

            This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.   or

            M. Jean-Luc BOCK, Secretary of the Peak Oil and Gas Committee of the Walloon Parliament.

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Public inquiry about relationship between the economy and peak oil, and the implications for Wallonia

As oil is a finite resource, at a given moment, oil production will reach a maximum - a peak - before going into decline. But if production declines, prices rise, and other oil resources become profitable. With the extraction of these resources, some believe that peak oil can be postponed. It is the main point of debate over peak oil.

According to the International Energy Agency (WEO2010), conventional oil has likely peaked in 2006. Oil deposits that are easily accessible and have high production flows are replaced by deposits that are difficult to access, or have low production flows, or require heavy investments to achieve significant production flows, such as tar sands and extra-heavy oil. Therefore, peak oil is not so much a problem of remaining oil stock volume. It is both a problem of physical accessibility to the stock (visible by higher production costs), and a problem of extraction rate (visible by the increasing pace of investments needed to offset the decline in old deposits). These two aspects are closely linked, and both cause an increase in oil prices, as long as oil demand remains strong.

As oil prices influence both oil supply and demand, some people prefer to use an economic definition of peak oil: peak oil would be the moment when investing in the extraction of an additional barrel requires an oil price that is higher than the price the weakest consumer can bear. From a certain price, there is indeed demand destruction, which can take different routes (eg: substitution or economic recession, as during the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979, and during the current crisis). Peak oil could therefore constitute an obstacle to economic growth.

 

The inquiry aims to answer the following questions:

¨ Are some countries already undergoing the first negative effects of an economic peak oil, through their oil bill? Do high oil prices play a role in the economic crisis we face since 2008?

¨ What might be the effects of higher oil prices in the future on economic growth and the economic sectors?

¨ If oil prices rise more slowly than oil production costs, what could be the effects on oil rent, and ultimately oil revenues of the governments, both in producing and consuming countries?

¨ Since 2006, global net oil exports are in a downward trend (Figure 1, next page). What are the causes and consequences of this decline?

¨ In a context of declining oil exports and high prices, India and China are increasing their oil imports, while Europe and the United States are reducing them (Figure 2, next page). Are the occidental countries weaned off oil in favor of Asia due to high prices?

¨ What are the implications and opportunities of these developments for Wallonia?

 

Figure 1: Evolution of world net exports of oil (all liquids) sorted by oil exporting country, and oil prices (black line, $2012, West Texas Intermediate spot price) since 1986. Economics crises are indicated. Source: EIA data, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

 

Figure 2: Evolution of world net imports of oil (all liquids). Imports from the USA, China, India and EU are represented. Source: EIA data.

 

 

Find here more information about the Peak Oil and Gas Committee of the Walloon Parliament

 



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Mobilizing society in the face of peak oil

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